Banjul Future Trends
Gambia · Africa · Trend-based projections to 2050
This page projects Banjul's weather to 2030, 2040 and 2050, fitting one trend line per variable to its own 50-year ERA5 record. Around it sits a statistical range: temperature, tropical days and frost days get a Best and Worst scenario; precipitation and sunshine hours get a Low and High estimate instead, since more or less rain or sun isn't inherently better or worse. An R² score shows how closely the trend fits the record, so a lower R² means more year-to-year noise. Which variable in Banjul shifts hardest, and how firmly the record backs that line, is laid out per trajectory below.
Data through September 20, 2026.
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Frequently asked questions about Banjul's projected trends
How warm will Banjul be in 2050?
Extrapolated from Banjul's own record since 1976, the average daytime high in 2050 works out at roughly 30.9°C, up 0.8°C from 2025. This is a straight-line projection of measured weather data, not a climate model or a scenario-based forecast.
How certain is the temperature projection for Banjul?
The 2050 range runs from 30.5°C to 31.2°C. That spread comes from the 95% confidence interval on the trend line's own slope, so the noisier Banjul's record, the wider the band. The trend accounts for 29% of the variation between years; the rest is ordinary year-to-year swing.
How many days above 30°C will Banjul get in 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 230 days above 30°C a year in 2050, against 168 in 2025. These are the days that set peak cooling demand, so this figure matters more for grid planning and building design than the annual average above.
Will Banjul still get frost in 2050?
Banjul already recorded no frost days in 2025, and the trend line does not change that. Frost is not a useful measure here, though the heat figures above are.
Is Banjul getting wetter or drier by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 792mm of precipitation a year in 2050, against 771mm in 2025, so wetter. An annual total says little about distribution though: the same rainfall can arrive in shorter, harder bursts, and that is what loads drains and water storage.
Will Banjul get more sunshine by 2050?
The trend line lands on roughly 3909 sunshine hours a year in 2050, against 3924 in 2025, so less sun. Sunshine hours bear directly on rooftop solar yield, though heat works against it at the same time: a panel loses efficiency at high temperatures.
